May 19, 2012

33 voices for justice

Several days ago, I spoke with a Virginia House of Delegates member on the condition of anonymity regarding the vote to confirm Tracy Thorne-Begland, an openly gay judicial nominee to the General District Court of the the 13th District. The General District Courts in Virginia deal with matters like traffic tickets. Thorne-Begland formerly served in the Navy and was honorably discharged because he was a homosexual who violated the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy. He was nominated to served by Delegate Manoli Loupassi, a Republican from Chesterfield County. Loupassi has stated that Thorne-Begland is well-qualified for the job.

For more in-depth background and a reasoned defense of Thorne-Begland’s opposition against “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” while he was serving in the Navy, refer to this article. Some critics will argue that they are not against gays, they are just against Thorne-Begland’s actions in the Navy. This argument does not stand up to scrutiny as there have been whistleblowers in the military in the past and these whistleblowers are vital to improving the military.

Conversation excerpted from the Bearing Drift article:

Ann Flan Kirwin May 15, 2012 17:40 pm
…The bigger issue, I think, is that he went on national television to speak out against DADT while he was still in the military. Clearly a violation of their rules of conduct. Not a smart move for someone who wants to be a judge.”

MD Russ May 15, 2012 19:44 pm
Two Air Force F-22 pilots went on “60 Minutes” after complaining to members of Congress that the Air Force wasn’t addressing pilot oxygen problems with the aircraft. Today the SECDEF ordered flight restrictions on the F-22 until the problem is solved. One of those pilots in a Captain in the Virginia Air National Guard stationed at Langley AFB. Would you disqualify him as a future district court judge?

This Delegate I spoke to told me that Delegate Bob Marshall’s grandstanding on this issue to remove Thorne-Begland from the list of judicial nominees on account of him being a “homosexual activist” and legislating from the bench could not come at a politically worse time for Republicans. The entire premise for Marshall leading the charge against Thorne-Begland was that he was gay, not because of some nuanced view about the wisdom of adhering to military procedure. Marshall’s exact words about Thorne-Begland was that he was “an aggressive activist for the pro-homosexual agenda.”

I told the Delegate that if Republicans are going to criticize President Barack Obama’s open support for gay marriage as a political ploy to raise money from progressives, then Republicans are hypocritical to oppose a qualified, openly gay judicial nominee and use the opportunity to advance their own political interests with the hardcore anti-gay constituency. Bob Marshall and other Republicans who voted no will most certainly use this issue in the future to raise a good sum of money from their supporters. The Delegate I spoke to agreed with this statement.

The Delegate stated that Speaker Bill Howell (R-Stafford) hoped for enough Republicans to break party lines to reach the 51 vote threshold to confirm Thorne-Begland. It wasn’t even close and Howell himself did not even vote on this matter. The Delegate mentioned that everyone was thinking about the political consequences of the vote for themselves. Obviously, political consequences were on everyone’s minds especially for the Republicans who abstained or did not even vote at all. Yet, in a vote that requires 51 yeas for passage, an abstention or an absence, for whatever reason (i.e. “It was late.” “I didn’t know what was going on.”), amounts to a vote of nay. Everybody knew this was Bob Marshall’s political power play. I guess it is okay in the minds of Republicans to criticize Obama for voting “present” on tough decisions as an Illinois State Senator while they on the other hand, avoid taking a stand on this matter to gain plausible deniability.

The Republicans who broke ranks and joined the Democrats in a losing effort to confirm Thorne-Begland should be commended for their courage. There were only eight of them in a chamber that has 67 Republicans and 1 independent caucusing with Republicans. Not only did they fall short of the goal, these eight Republicans who broke ranks to support Thorne-Begland and had the courage to stand for justice have put themselves at a political disadvantage within their own party in trying to hold onto their seat or in their prospects for higher office in the future.

Today’s Republican Party has been hijacked by an unhinged, insufferable, angry, irrational, hardcore, extremist conservative base. No Republican in office is safe from threats within the party. Even Republicans with solid conservative voting records risk facing primary challengers if they have the audacity to actually say nice things about Democrats as people.

There are many examples of powerful, well-funded conservative Republicans falling to openly angry conservative Republicans who had fundraising disadvantages in primaries and in lesser known intra-party races across the nation over the past few years. Richard Mourdock’s victory over the conservative, yet genteel, Richard Lugar is the example that is fresh on everybody’s minds. However, the example I will cite is even more pronounced.

Former Congressman Bob Inglis (R-SC) came from a heavily Republican district. South Carolina’s 4th Congressional District included the ultraconservative Bob Jones University and the winner of the GOP primary in that district is assured a seat for life. Never mind that Inglis was as hardcore a conservative as one can get. His lifetime American Conservative Union rating is 93.25%. He made some open-minded statements about climate change, voted for the bailout, and had the decency to respect President Obama as a human being. For that, the GOP activists found him intolerable and Trey Gowdy defeated Bob Inglis in the primary in 2010 by a landslide.

These are the stakes. The eight Republicans who broke ranks and joined the Democrats to support an openly gay judicial nominee who is well qualified for office have exposed themselves to the possibility of a primary challenger, eroded some support and enthusiasm from the right-wing activist base that they need to consolidate in order to win reelection in tough swing districts, and have made any prospect of winning a primary to be a Republican nominee for higher office more difficult.

These eight Republicans set aside their political ambitions in order to vote on principle. This is the principle that in America, a person is deemed fit for a job based on his or her qualifications, accomplishments, potential for success, diligence, and, ultimately, character. Discrimination on the basis of race, gender, religion, disability, sexual orientation, background, and socioeconomic status is un-American and it is wrong.

The following is a list of the 33 individuals who voted to confirm Thorne-Begland. I reiterate that due to the unhinged, uncompromising extremists who have taken over the Republican Party, these eight Republicans should be commended for doing what is right to advance American values of fairness and equal opportunity instead of doing what is safe to improve their standing and reputation within their own disturbed and deranged Republican Party. The Democrats likewise, should be commended as well.

David B. Albo, R-Fairfax
Kenneth C. Alexander, D-Norfolk
Mamye E. BaCote, D-Newport News
David L. Bulova, D-Fairfax
Betsy B. Carr, D-Richmond
Barbara J. Comstock, R-Fairfax
Rosalyn R. Dance, D-Petersburg
Peter F. Farrell, R-Henrico
Eileen Filler-Corn, D-Fairfax
Charniele L. Herring, D-Alexandria
Patrick A. Hope, D-Arlington
Algie T. Howell, D-Norfolk
Matthew James, D-Portsmouth
Mark L. Keam, D-Fairfax
Terry G. Kilgore, R-Scott
L. Kaye Kory, D-Fairfax
James M. LeMunyon, R-Fairfax
Lynwood W. Lewis Jr., D-Accomack
Alfonso H. Lopez, D-Arlington
G. Manoli Loupassi, R-Richmond
Jennifer L. McClellan, D-Richmond
Delores L. McQuinn, D-Richmond
Joseph D. Morrissey, D-Henrico
Thomas Davis Rust, R-Fairfax
James M. Scott, D-Fairfax
Mark D. Sickles, D-Fairfax
Lionell Spruill Sr., D-Chesapeake
Scott A. Surovell, D-Fairfax
Luke Torian, D-Prince William
David J. Toscano, D-Charlottesville
Jeion A. Ward, D-Hampton
Vivian E. Watts, D-Fairfax
Joseph A. Yost, R-Montgomery

The complete list including nays, abstentions, and non-votes can be found here. In the interest of disclosure, Delegate Barbara Comstock is a former boss and current client of mine. The anonymous Delegate I spoke to several days ago on this matter was definitely not her. I had no influence on this vote whatsoever and no one asked me to write this article to highlight the 33 Democrats and Republicans who came together to stand for justice.

References:

American Conservative Union. (2010). “2010 U.S. House Votes”. Retrieved from http://conservative.org/ratings/ratingsarchive/2010/2010HouseRatings.htm#SC

Kraushaar, Josh. (April 7, 2009). “Inglis faces fight from the right”. Politico. Retrieved from http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/20974.html

Schoeneman, Brian. (May 15, 2012). “Vote against openly gay judicial nominee another black eye for Virginia”. Bearing Drift. Retrieved from http://bearingdrift.com/2012/05/15/vote-against-openly-gay-judicial-nominee-another-black-eye-for-virginia/

Times-Dispatch Staff. (May 15, 2012). “House roll-call on Tracy Thorne-Begland”. Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved from http://www2.timesdispatch.com/news/2012/may/15/house-roll-call-tracy-thorne-begland-ar-1916406/

Loudoun County Town Election Analysis

I will analyze two recent Town elections in Loudoun County to determine if there are trends that we can draw from the results. These elections are the special election for Leesburg Town Council and the election for Lovettsville Mayor.

A special election was held to fill a vacancy on the Leesburg Town Council after then-Councilman Ken Reid defeated then-Supervisor Kelly Burk of the Leesburg District in 2011. Kelly Burk ran for the vacant Town Council seat and defeated Dwight Dopilka who had the backing of the Loudoun County Republican Committee (LCRC). Reid and Burk essentially switched seats.

During the Town and City elections that occurred across the Commonwealth of Virginia on May 1st, there was an election held to elect a new Mayor of Lovettsville. Mayor Elaine Walker was retiring and Vice Mayor Robert Zoldos ran against Councilman Tim Sparbanie, who had the backing of the LCRC, for Mayor. Though Zoldos did not have the LCRC putting boots on the ground for his campaign, he was, by several accounts, a Republican who ran as a non-partisan independent*. This election generated a higher than usual turnout and ended with a victory for Zoldos and his entire slate of Town Council candidates who ran together as a ticket.

* Town and City elections in the Commonwealth of Virginia are non-partisan races, but political parties are allowed to endorse and support candidates just like any other interest group.

The reason why I chose these two particular races in Loudoun County to analyze is because they had two common denominators. First, they were two of the most prominent races with two official candidates on the ballot. The second denominator is that the LCRC was involved in both of these races.

The LCRC is 0-2 this year in targeted races. Other LCRC-backed candidates did not have opposition on the ballot like Mayor Betsy Davis of Middleburg. Is the influence of the LCRC diminishing in 2012 after Republicans swept all but two seats in the county in 2011?

No, it is not.

First, the LCRC has been more focused this year on influencing legislation. The Loudoun County Republican Committee is one of the most vocal anti-Metrorail groups in Loudoun County and dissent is not welcome within its ranks. Opposing voices are ridiculed and not given a fair hearing from the supposed “party of ideas.” I know for a fact that there are very conservative Republicans within the LCRC who strongly support Phase 2 of the Dulles Rail Project, but they are too intimidated by the rabid opponents of rail to speak up and are reluctant to expend their goodwill and political capital to provide a conservative voice in support of rail. Several people in the LCRC have stated publicly that they will field primary challengers against every single Supervisor who votes for rail. As it stands, the Loudoun County Republican Committee is on the cusp of succeeding in the effort to kill Metrorail against the will of the people by putting an inordinate amount of pressure on the all-Republican Loudoun County Board of Supervisors to vote for their wishes and not that of the people.

Second, in the Leesburg Town Council race, Kelly Burk had the benefit of having strong name identification in a Democratic leaning town. She also received the assistance of the Loudoun County Democratic Committee to counter the support the LCRC gave to Dwight Dopilka. Burk was favored to win and she won.

Finally, the one race that could change my answer above from a “no” to a “hard to tell” is the Lovettsville Mayor race. Two Republicans ran against each other.

Bob Zoldos ran as a non-partisan independent with a slate of other candidates for Town Council on the Friends of Lovettsville ticket. The Friends of Lovettsville ticket was a creative, organic, and spirited campaign that expressed itself with a lot of homemade yard signs. Homemade yard signs are not a new idea, but their existence and prevalence do indicate a high level of excitement and personal investment in the campaign by its supporters.

Tim Sparbanie campaigned early within the LCRC for their support since last fall. Many people in the LCRC contributed their time and efforts on Sparbanie’s race, thus greatly increasing turnout for this election. Some thought the outcome was a slam dunk for Sparbanie due to the numbers they had of expected voters. While this race garnered a lot of interest, brought a lot of outside help from the LCRC to Lovettsville, and drove more people to the polls, Sparbanie lost 52%-48%.

Local elections, especially at the Town and City level, can be wildly unpredictable. The smaller the jurisdiction, the crazier it gets. Mayors and Council Members are more immune to the shifting national winds, but are more prone to winning and losing based on silly things like long standing generational family feuds and semi-political beefs. Everybody knows the town drunk, harlot, workaholic, whiz kid, gifted athlete, creep, bum, church lady, cat lady, debutante, beauty queen, and proverbial crazy uncle in these small towns. Nobody can stand each other, yet everybody continues to live together for years going into generations.

Fatigue from the partisanship of the LCRC in a small town, non-partisan race that pitted two Republicans against each other might be a factor tipping the election in Zoldos’ favor. Additionally, unique local issues surrounding economic development, public safety, education, environmental quality, and parks & recreation are also more important that ideological purity in these elections.

I would caution everybody to not read too much into these results. Talks of a Democratic comeback or a Republican decline is premature. Local elections are not always the best predictor for greater regional or national performance.

In re FCRC Leadership

A few weeks ago, there was an ongoing, hilarious debate at Mason Conservative regarding the current state of the new FCRC administration. I did some fact finding and I would like to shed some light into the situation as I have interacted with all the various interest groups and personalities in the FCRC significantly over the past three years.

First, is a disclosure. Jay McConville is a client of mine and I was a consultant on his campaign. I know consultants have a tense relationship with political activists and I am okay with that. However, while I pay the bills by being a political consultant (and public relations consultant to other organizations in the entertainment industry), I am also a citizen. I am a hybrid vendor/consultant due to my numerous talents. While I have been a vendor for candidates I don’t particularly care for (I can owe up to that. It is just business.) I have fortunately, with limited exceptions, only been a consultant for candidates I would still support if I was not on staff.

Whenever possible, I want to work for the people I want to work for. Being an enthusiastic supporter of Candidate A, but getting your paycheck cut by Candidate B running against Candidate A does not seem right to me. Working for people I believe in allows me to put my talents that are in demand to work people who I truly want to see succeed. It is a win-win-win situation. First, I put food on the table. Second, I get to work for people I would vote for anyway. Finally, I do what I believe is my civic duty to put good people in leadership.

It does not matter what your political beliefs are. Good government cannot function without good people. As a result, my client roster and former bosses are very diverse and occupy a wide spectrum on the political continuum. My affiliation with a certain candidate does not give off any cues as to how liberal or conservative that candidate is. It only says that I believe this candidate is of great character and integrity and is therefore worthy of my support.

Jay McConville is a good man and he will do a good job. Period.

I played no role in the transition. I have never been asked nor did I ask for a role. I am not at all privy to any matters pertaining to the current FCRC leadership.

Let us move on to the real issue that has sparked a debate online about the direction of the FCRC. People appear to be upset with certain individuals who are on the transition team. Critics see the situation reeking of cronyism, power grabbing, and puppetry.

I am aware that a certain individual on the transition team is not viewed favorably by a segment of the FCRC and people who are privy to the FCRC (I will use FCRC as a general term throughout for people who are involved and privy to its matters. It does not denote paid membership.). In my past conversations with this segment of the FCRC, this segment perceives the individual in question to be an overeager, overambitious young kid who is waiting, planning, and scripting his life for the opportunity to run for public office well in advance. The individual is perceived to desperately want to be a relevant part of the “Establishment” by strategically kissing up to everyone in a position of authority or on the cusp of authority and by dressing and acting like the individual is twenty years older. The perception this individual gives off to this group is enough for this entire group to vote against everyone this individual openly endorses for any office. Several people of this segment have told me point blank that they would not vote for my clients because this individual’s name was on my clients’ endorsement list.

These are the words of the individual’s critics, not mine. I can’t speak for the individual’s quality of work due to my limited interactions with the individual. It doesn’t mean I think it is good or bad. I just won’t vouch for that which I have not seen up close.

Let us flip this around. The segment I am talking about contains, but is not limited to, individuals who are perceived by others to be perpetually angry and extremist in their views. This segment prides itself in being “anti-establishment” and “grassroots”. This segment was activated and inspired by then-Senator Ken Cuccinelli back in the days when individual candidates had to build standalone operations because the FCRC was so unreliable. The funny thing is that this segment was solidly behind John Cook along with the people they deride as “Establishment” and the two groups worked together at a grassroots level to get Cook elected and reelected. It was on this campaign that some of the establishment/anti-establishment beef still seen today at the local level had its roots in early 2009. Other aspects of the feud go back way longer.

These are the words of the critics and their opposition colored by my perceptions.

I have heard of the history between these two camps and I don’t care. One of the many reasons why I am no longer a dues paying member to any political party is because of silly high school beefs like this. Only in American political parties can factions be allowed to thrive antagonistically against one another for decades on end and play nice just for the cameras. If this was a business or a sports team, internal disputes would be handled in an orderly manner and if disagreements still surface, one or both parties would be cut. However, in politics, due to the institutionalized two party system in America, antagonistic factions don’t splinter into separate parties. They co-exist and thrive even as they plot for one another’s destruction within the party. If normal people really knew the amount of high school-ish drama, favoritism, and beefs that are involved among a small core of rabid activists who control the nomination process for public offices, they would revolt.

Does the individual in question come across as a young, square fuddy duddy? Yes. Does the antagonistic segment contain people who really need to smile more and stop blaming Democrats for every misfortune they personally experience or that the nation experiences? Yes. Have both sides contributed their time and talents to the GOP? Yes, countless hours on behalf of the FCRC and many candidates. Do both sides need to hug it out? By all means, yes.

Finally, the FCRC is organizing door knocking campaigns every weekend and staffing the phone banks in the basement every day. I have seen it with my own eyes. Other than aesthetic changes to the facility, it is business as usual.

Loudoun County Town Election Results (5/1/12)

In the only contested race for mayor on May 1st in Loudoun County, Vice-Mayor Robert Zoldos defeated Loudoun County Republican Committee-backed Councilman Tim Sparbanie to replace the retiring Elaine Walker as Mayor of Lovettsville.

Mayor Betsy Davis of Middleburg, Mayor Bob Lazaro of Purcellville*, and Mayor Scott Ramsey of Round Hill all ran for reelection unopposed and won.

* Mayor Lazaro defeated a write-in candidate.

Full, unofficial results at the time of this writing are available here.

Mitt Romney comes to Fairfax County on May 2nd

Rep. Scott Rigell on Civility

Word.


http://rigell.house.gov/news/email/show.aspx?ID=KXY2ABTEPPOT27QD5GPTFYML4Y

The Rigell Report: On Civility

Dear Friends,

The Virginian-Pilot recently published an editorial called ‘Shoring Up Civility.’ It spoke of the shared desire of so many Americans to move past the hyper-partisan, coarse rhetoric we too often hear from Washington, D.C., and to get down to the business of addressing America’s serious challenges. I could not agree more, and I wanted to take the opportunity to share with you how I am trying to do this as your representative.

In my 16 months in Congress, I have spoken often – and from many venues, including the House floor – of our need to consider three important things when we deal with one another: tone, facts, and motives.

First, our tone. We must strive for a respectful tone when addressing one another – even and especially toward those with whom we disagree. Our disagreements are not personal. They are over policy matters, and our tone should reflect this.

Second, we must seek out and rely upon the facts of a situation at all times. We cannot make decisions on anything but the true, empirical facts. I could not run my business based on emotion or personal opinion – and we cannot run the greatest country in the world on those either.

Lastly, we must not question the motives of those with whom we disagree. For example, I am a Republican, and job creation is my number one priority. But I do not doubt for one moment that my friends who are Democrats – and the President himself – get up each and every day wanting to do that very same thing: create jobs for Americans. It is not the goals we disagree upon, it is simply the ways we achieve those goals where we diverge. (Editor’s emphasis)

We face great challenges as a nation. As we look to repair and heal our Republic, it is important that we seek civility as we also seek common ground. These are the values and ideals I take with me each day as your Congressman, and I appreciate having the chance to share them with you.

Mindful that I work for you, I remain

Yours in Freedom,

Scott Rigell

Thank you Rep. Robert Hurt

Many thanks go to Congressman Robert Hurt who hosted the first ever Virginia Blogger Summit on Capitol Hill last week.  Writers from Bearing Drift, Rick Sincere News and Thoughts, The American Maverick, yours truly from The Chesapeake Liaison, and many others were treated to a Capitol Hill tour led by Congressman Hurt and had the opportunity to engage in a roundtable discussion with members of the Virginia delegation and Congressman Allen West.

Self-publishing freelance writers (I still have qualms about the connotations surrounding “blogger”!) are leading the way in the marketplace of ideas amidst a greater freelance economic revolution that is empowering people with more freedom and flexibility.  As we move toward the future, information and content will continue to grow exponentially every year. While it is easy to become overwhelmed with such a plethora of information, this is all and all a positive development.  The cream always rises to the top and truth will prevail when there are more opportunities to be heard.  Members of Congress are starting to realize that the rapid growth of freelance writers and independent outlets as a whole will be beneficial to democracy and are embracing this new method of content delivery.

Thanks once again to Congressman Robert Hurt for hosting this Virginia Blogger Summit.  Most importantly, many thanks to you, our loyal Chesapeake Liaison readers.  The comments I have received in person regarding the Chesapeake Liaison have been overwhelmingly favorable.

Virginia Blogger Summit

Your boy Phil Tran got invited to an exclusive Virginia Blogger Summit on the Hill hosted by Congressman Robert Hurt today. I am suited up; all black everything with white accents, fedora, and gold jewelry. I got my Virginia flag pin for the day and my Maryland flag pin for a nightcap with my Maryland clients. DC hip-hop and go-go artists Wale, Chuck Brown, Rare Essence, and Backyard Band are playing on the iPhone. I am representing the DMV to the fullest, baby. Ain’t no place in the world I’d rather be.

Also, I am taking the Metro to Capitol South as I write this. I can’t work while I drive. Do you really think I would hurt my bottom line and efficiency by driving? Support rail. Hustle hard.

1:08pm:
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1:29pm:
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Live Coverage of the FCRC Convention

9:35am – I am here, registered, and swagged out. All red everything, baby. Yes sir.
9:36am – U.S. Senate candidates are speaking. Wake me up when they say something new.
9:53am – Ken Cuccinelli is on stage.
9:59am – “Does that mean you want me to finish?” – KC. Yes!
10:00am – “Short speeches make long friendships.” I think Coach Don Shula of the Baltimore Colts and Miami Dolphins said that.
10:01am – “Ladies and gentleman, that concludes our pregame festivities.” – Mike Thompson, Jr.
10:02am – That pregame show was not crunk.
10:03am – I can think of 100 other things I would rather be doing this morning than to be in this circus.
10:05am – I think #99 on the list is wearing a chicken suit on M Street NW amidst heavy traffic.
10:08am – Irrational, unhinged conservative #18372939: An announcement was made for people to move their cars out of the fire lane or get towed. One extremist conservative said that was stupid because taxpayers fund the school where the convention is being held and can do anything they want. This is from a supposed “law and order” conservative. Come on, son.
10:10am – I want to go home.
10:13am – Some nice church ladies asked me yesterday why a nice, upstanding gentleman like me is involved in politics. I don’t have a good answer.
10:17am – The anger in the building is just too much for me.
10:37am – Voting has commenced.
10:38am – A friend of mine just sent me a text message asking the question, “no red shoes?”
10:39am – Sadly, no, but black goes with everything.
10:40am – Correction: All red everything from the ankle up with gold jewelry.
10:43am – It is real. My man Anthony Bedell is stepping down from FCRC Chairman after four years of supreme leadership and swagger. He is so excited and happy to return to a life of normalcy. I strongly relate.
10:59am – “How could anyone miss you?!!” – A Very Important Person commenting on my very loud, team-spirited outfit
11:01am – Voting has closed.
11:07am – Bedell speaks. People listen.
11:10am – “It has been an honor and a privilege to be your Chairman.” – Chairman Anthony Bedell
11:11am – Mr. Chairman, it has been an honor and a privilege to be your most loyal subject.
11:11am – “Anthony kicked some [butt].” – Mike Thompson, Jr.
11:35am – “What percentage of the vote do you think Mickey Mouse gets in Florida every year?”
11:36am – Hey now. Mickey Mouse is a credible candidate in Florida. He has Orlando locked up.
11:50am – Jay McConville has been elected FCRC Chairman.
12:05pm – Convention is adjourned.

A full write up will come soon.

Disclosures: Anthony Bedell is my former boss and Jay McConville a client of mine.

Great Analysis of Virginia’s Presidential Primary

As an American from a working class background, these are my exact thoughts.

“First of all, elite DC insiders are firmly behind Romney…But as you move outside the “elite” precincts, Romney’s numbers begin to drop…if Romney can’t get his act together among the “average guy” type of voters, young people or minorities, he has little chance of carrying Virginia in November in a Presidential turnout.” – Not Larry Sabato

Further Reading:

Why I will not vote for Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney – The Republican John Kerry