Webb’s future could have major impact on 2011 and 2012 races

I’ve said elsewhere that I think speculation about the 2012 Senate race is premature, as we’ve got state and local races coming up in 2011 that need attention.  That being said, the biggest question most folks have been asking – and one I’ve asked dozens of people on both sides of the aisle over the last few weeks – is whether Jim Webb intends to run again.  No one I have talked to, whether they be Washington lobbyists or Richmond insiders, thinks Jim Webb is acting like someone who intends to run again.

I have heard a few rumors about what Webb may do, but there is one I have found most intriguing, as I have heard it from multiple people over the last two weeks.  That rumor says that Webb will be named Secretary of Defense, to replace Robert Gates, who has announced he intends to step down some time in 2011.  Given Webb’s dislike of they way the Senate works – he clearly prefers being in a military or executive environment where things get done – this rumor makes a lot of sense.  His military credentials are unimpeachable, and his concern for the Iraq war issue – his son is an Iraq war veteran – made him a leader in the Democratic party on defense issues.  Given his desire to see the war in Iraq ended, taking over the Defense Department that is wrapping up that war seems to be very fitting.  Given Webb’s voting record, losing him in the Senate won’t be a massive blow to the Democrats maintaining control there, as Webb was independent and his vote couldn’t be counted on by the leadership.  That makes this rumor, to me at least, seem pretty credible.  There do not appear to be any no-brainer reasons why Webb couldn’t move from the Senate to Secretary of Defense.

If that happens, the 2012 Senate race in Virginia is going to explode.

Under VA Code § 24.2-207, when a vacancy occurs in the United States Senate, the Governor may make a temporary appointment to fill the seat until a special election may be held to permanently elect a new senator to fill out the term of the Senator who vacated the office.  The text of VA Code § 24.2-207 reads:

“When any vacancy occurs in the representation of the Commonwealth of Virginia in the United States Senate, the Governor shall issue a writ of election to fill the vacancy for the remainder of the unexpired term. The election shall be held on the next succeeding November general election date or, if the vacancy occurs within 120 days prior to that date, on the second succeeding November general election date. The Governor may make a temporary appointment to fill the vacancy until the qualified voters fill the same by election.”

Given that we have a “general election” coming up in November 2011, whoever the Governor appoints would only be Senator until the special election, and under § 24.2-207, the governor has to issue a writ of election for the next succeeding November general election – that’s November 2011.  The VA Code defines a “general election” in VA Code § 24.2-101 as “an election held in the Commonwealth on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November or on the first Tuesday in May for the purpose of filling offices regularly scheduled by law to be filled at those times.”  There is no distinction between federal and state general elections in the definitions section of the Code.

This interpretation seems to make sense historically, too.  From my review, there have been three Senators appointed to fill unexpired terms vacated by a sitting Senator, most recently Harry Byrd, Jr. who was appointed and subsequently elected of finish out the term of his father, Harry Byrd Sr.  His special election took place during a federal general election year, 1966.  Oddly enough, Harry Byrd, Sr. got the job himself in the same way in 1933.  He was appointed to the position of Senator in March of 1933 to fill the seat vacated by Claude Swanson.  He was elected that November in a special election, and then reelected in 1934 in a regular general election. 1933 should have been a state general election year.

If I am correct, if Jim Webb vacates his office to become the Secretary of Defense, that outcome has a major impact on both the 2011 state elections and the 2012 federal election for U.S. Senator.  Given the traditional lower turnout for non-federal elections, having a fight this year at the top of the ticket for a major federal office will have serious down ballot impacts on the state elections.  For example, here in Fairfax, the top of the ticket will either be the State Senate  race or the Chairman of the Board of Supervisors race, depending on your perspective.  Neither of those types of races will have the kind of impact that a U.S. Senate race would have on down ballot races.  The potential impact is huge, especially if both parties have credible candidates at the top, which they will.  The Republican candidate will be the sitting Senator, appointed by Governor McDonnell, and the Democrats have a variety of potential Senate candidates to choose from, including DNC Chair Tim Kaine or former Congressman Tom Periello, both of whom have already been touted by the Democrats as potential runners in 2012.

The most likely choice for Governor McDonnell to replace Webb immediately would be George Allen.  If that happens, the big primary battle we were all expecting next year  gets moved to this year, probably sometime as late as September. That will put massive pressure on announced candidates like Jamie Radtke and unannounced candidates like Corey Stewart who will have to move up all of their planning and fundraising efforts by a year or risk facing a sitting U.S. Senator rather than an open primary we all expected next year.

It’s hard to say whether having a Senate race at the top of the ticket in 2011 will help or hurt Republicans seeking local office.  A bruising primary that turns into a fight between the establishment and the Tea Party could cause divisions that make it difficult to turn out voters for state and local candidates in 2011.  And the potential that Democratic turn-out will spike in an effort to hold on to the U.S. Senate seat can’t be discounted either, especially if a popular Democratic candidate like Perriello or Kaine ends up at the top of the ticket.

Now, of course, all of this is conjecture because we truly have no idea what Webb is going to do.  Some, like Tim Kaine, are confident that Webb will run again.  And there’s no way to know who is on the White House’s short list for Secretary of Defense, nor has Gates announced an actual date for his retirement.

All eyes are going to be on Webb in the next few months as we figure out what he plans on doing.  His decision could have a major impact on the elections this year and next.  It will be interesting to see what he decides to do.